This study aims to develop a synthetic scenario generating model for the time-dependent event set using Probablistic System Dynamics (PSD) and to show its actual application to the technology assessment of personal computer.
Classical Cross Impact Analysis has a limitation not to include exogenous variables. But this model includes a set of variables regarding environmental factors by using Probablistic System Dynamics.
This study is composed of three major parts;
(1) reviews of scenario generating method
(2) a development of a new synthetic scenario generating model by using Probablistic System Dynamics
(3) an actual application of the model to the technology assessment of personal computer
The scenario generating model has two parts;
(1) a set of events which is considered to produce a synthetic scenario
(2) a set of variables which is considered to have an effect on events strongly
The model is applied to the technology assessment of personal computer. The procedure is following;
(1) The occurrence time of events is estimated by using questionnaires and interviews with experts, and trend of curves is determined by past data and views of experts.
(2) A series of mathematical algorithm is defined to consider interactions between a set of events and variables.
(3) Time-dependent scenario is acquired by the execution of the simulation program.
The results show that a method to present a synthetic scenario is proposed and an actual implication is introduced by considering environmental factors.
To improve and expand the research, other forecasting techniques should be utilized and further elaboration of the relations between events and variables will be needed.
