This thesis examines the use of cross impact analysis for technology assessment and technological forecasting, focusing on the use of cross impact analysis with other forecasting tools.
The purpose of this study is to duplicate the contingencies in simulating and forecasting a real system, and to provide decision makers with the necessary information to select proper policies or strategies.
A review of the critical literature on cross impact analysis from the early days of development in the late 1960's is given with regard to the scenario generation method, trend impact analysis and probablistic system dynamics (PSD).
In this study, a new approach to cross impact analysis using PSD is developed. The method involves a procedure duplicating the policies inserted between two sectors in the PSD model, the improvement of actual conditions, the separation of policy effects, and their subsequent analysis. This new technique is used in the forecasting and assessment of air pollution in the Seoul Metropolitan area in the year 2000.
The results of analysis give us the following findings:
(1) a new concept is meaningful,
(2) the method is useful in selecting policy alternatives.
Further research should be done to improve this technique in relation to other methods using different forecasting techniques.
