#  서지주요정보
Goal programming 을 利用한 相互影響度 分析 = Cross impact analysis using goal programming
서명 / 저자 Goal programming 을 利用한 相互影響度 分析 = Cross impact analysis using goal programming / 金淵敏.
저자명 김연민 ; Kim, Youn-Min
발행사항 [서울 : 한국과학기술원, 1981].
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등록번호

4001191

소장위치/청구기호

학술문화관(문화관) 보존서고

MMGS 8107

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#### 초록정보

This thesis deals with cross impact analysis for technology assessment. The focus of the thesis is the technique of cross impact matrix. Critical literature review on the cross impact analysis is given with respect to event cross impact analysis, trend impact analysis, and scenario generation method from the early days of development in late 1960's. Of these techniques SMIC 74 which has mathematical rationale of consistent probability is explained in detaily, including its contents, procedural variations and critiques. In this study a new model of cross impact analysis using goal programming based on the scenario generation technique is developed. In the model, cross impact is fully considered using a priority factor of goal programming. Deviational variances of probability judgement are minimized according to priority factors. Specifically, the priority factors are $P_1$, $P_2$(priority 1, priority 2). $P_1$ is given to the deviational variables of conditional probabilities which considers cross impacts, $P_2$ to those of independent future probabilities. In each subgoal weighting values are also used to give better reliability of probability estimations. The objective function in the model is given as follows : $Min P_1 \displaystyle\sum\sum_{j＞i}^{n n-1} (w_{1i}^+d_{ij}^++w_{1i}^-d_{ij}^-)+p_2\sum_{i=1}^n (w_{2i}^+ d_i^++w_{2i}^-d_i^-)$ This formulation covers the optional character of objective function of SMIC 74 i. e., Max (Max $π_k$). The model reduces drastically the amount of computer runs. This new technique is applied to the assessment of the air pollution in Seoul Metropolitan area in 1990 and 2000. The results of analysis give us the following findings : 1) Cross impact analysis using goal programming has more meaningful solutions as comparing to the results by SMIC 74, simulation. 2) Theoretical rationale of the objective function in the newly developed technique is more appropriate than that of SMIC 74. Further research should be done to improve the technique related to weighting problem.

#### 서지기타정보

청구기호 {MMGS 8107 [iv], 116 p. : 삽도 ; 26 cm 한국어 부록 : 1, 1차 설문지 (서울시 대기오염에 관한 관련 요인 조사 ). - 2, 2차 설문지 (서울시 대오염 관련요인의 상호 영향도 조사 ) 저자명의 영문표기 : Youn-Min Kim 지도교수의 한글표기 : 이진주 지도교수의 영문표기 : Jin-Joo Lee 학위논문(석사) - 한국과학기술원 : 경영과학과, 참고문헌 : p. 97-102 Technoligy. Computer simulation. 목표 계획법. --과학기술용어시소러스 오퍼레이션 리서치. --과학기술용어시소러스 기술 (테크놀러지) --과학기술용어시소러스 시뮬레이션. --과학기술용어시소러스 Operations research.
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