There are many methods for forecasting the demand of a new product or a new telecommunication service. For example, regression, diffusion model, scenarios, market survey, analogy ans so on. Although forecasting the demand of a new telecommunication service requires qualitative approaches, such as market survey, analogy, we should follow a systematic procedure and use a objective method if we can.
This study suggests a procedure and a method for forecasting the demand of a new telecommunication service that there are no data related to. And then we apply the method to a case of forecasting the demand of the LEO voice service.
We analyze the diffusion of the existing telecommunication services or terminals and infer similarities from the results of the analysis. And we make a survey on the potential subscribers to grasp the factors which it is impossible to quantify. This method is meaningful in that it reflects the factors which one considers when he makes a decision to subscribe to a telecommunication service. The price elasticity of demand which we derive is very important information to managers of a new telecommunication service.
