Nowadays, cutting edge information system has been developed and adopted into a military organization to overcome an uncertain circumstance of warfare. We also indirectly experienced the effects of information system through the real warfare such as, Gulf War, Iraq War, and Afghanistan War. The concept of Network Centric Warfare(NCW) and Effect based Operation(EBO) are same line with an introducing of an advanced information system. Thus, it needs to quantitatively evaluate these effectiveness of information system adoption for various reasons. To introduce a more effective system, it needs to evaluate in perspective of cost-benefitt analysis. In addition, it needs to adjust parameters of system capability to maximize a combat effectiveness. Among the many analysis approaches, M&S(Modeling and Simulation) method has several advantages to analyzing complex and dynamic environment, especially for combat situation. However, we have faced some troubles when we evaluate the effectiveness of information by current simulation models. First, it doesn't have functions to simulate distortion and loss of information. Second, there is no function to simulate human-like decision-making. Therefore, this dissertation addresses a modeling method how to overcome these problems for evaluating the effectiveness of combat information.In chapter 2, to address the problem, I firstly define a combat information, related flow, and activities regarding combat situation. I categorize it into the three phases of information flow such as collection, transmit, and utilizing. In each phase, I investigate the related information and activities. Finally, I suggest key concepts of modeling requirement for evaluating the effect of information. The proposed modeling requirements consist of two levels. The first level is a simple decision process, we name it engagement level decision process. The second level is a contingency decision process, we name it tactical level decision process. The engagement level decision can be defined that some portion of increased combat effectiveness comes from the detecting and striking of targets at long range. The tactical level decision can be defined that some portion of increased combat effectiveness comes from the command and control of its own force's dispatch. Both decisions are strongly related to the enhanced information. To model the decision process of human, I introduce a concept of uncertainty which has three dimensions; location of uncertainty, sources of uncertainty, and level of uncertainty. Consequently, I suggest a speicific location, sources, and level of uncertainty to evaluate the combat effectiveness by enhanced information. In chapter 3, I perform two approaches to examine the relationship between the varied information and the quality of decision-making. The rest approach is model-based experiment. The model is constructed by Bayesian Networks which consist two decision levels; engagement level decision and tactical level decision. Building two Bayesian Network, I conduct two experiments how to vary the performance of decision-making by varied information. In the second approach, I conduct human subject experiments which consist of two phase experiments. In the 1st phase experiment, I screen the major factors to 2nd which criteria of information affects the quality of human decision-making. After the 1st phase experiment, I merge the severe quality criteria into levels of 'low', 'medium', and 'high' like a real world, then perform the main experiment to 2nd how quantity and quality of information could affect to the human decision-making. The experiments are conducted through computer-based simulated C2 in a laboratory environment. Throughout two approaches, I find coping strategies of human when receives imperfect information. Based on these results, I suggest a decision-making logic of human for evaluating combat effectiveness by enhanced information In chapter 4, I apply the results of experiments into the combat simulation. The objective of combat simulation is a finding the best candidate ISR system for a introducing the next generation infantry battalion. To reflect a real world situation, the real systems are abstracted. While the candidate A system is the current UAV system, the candidate B system is rotor-based micro UAV system. I set up a baseline candidate to compare the combat effectiveness of two policies based on introducing ISR system. The scenario in the combat simulation is built based on a typical defensive operation. In the scenario, there are four main decision points to simulate the effectiveness of decision-making. Consequently, the results of the combat experiments are evaluated in forms of combat effectiveness. Throughout this dissertation, we can understand the relationship between information and combat effectiveness. Comparing to the previous works, this dissertation tries to 2nd sources of enhanced combat effectiveness based on enhanced information. The key factors for understanding this relationship are simulating human-like decision-making. Although this dissertation focuses on the specific scenario and domain, it could be a very first step to understand for simulating of human-like decision-making in a military domain specific.
최근에 최신 정보시스템이 군에 도입이 되면서 전장에서 발생하는 불확실성을 감소시키고 있다. 걸프전, 이라크전, 아프가니스탄 전에서 전장에서의 정보효과를 추분히 실감할 수 있었다. 네트워크중심전과 효과중심전은 이러한 최신 정보시스템 도입에 따라 생성된 개념이라 할 수 있다. 따라서 이러한 효과에 대해서 여러가지 이유로 정량적인 분석이 필요하다. 예를 들면, 비용대 효과의 관점에서 정보 시스템을 도입할 때이다. 도입하는 정보시스템의 성능을 결정하기 위해서 전투효과를 최대화 할 수 있도록 변수를 조정하는 것이다. 이를 실현할 수 있는 많은 방법 중에 모의분석 방법은 복잡하고 동적인 체계를 대상으로 할 때 많은 장점이 있다. 그러나 이러한 방법을 현행 시뮬레이션 모델에 적용할 때는 여러 문제가 발생할 수 있다. 첫번째로 정보의 왜곡과 손실을 현행 시뮬레이션 모델에서는 반영하고 있지 않다는 것이다. 두번째는 사람과 같은 의사결정을 모의할 수 없다는 것이다. 그러므로 이 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 극복하고 정보의 효과를 정량적으로 측정할 수 있는 연구를 수행한다. 본 논문은 전장의 정보효과 분석을 위한 모델링 방법에 대하여 고찰 하였다. 이를 위하여 우선 전장의 정보에 대한 개념을 정의하고, 정보의 흐름 선 상에서 발생하는 관련 활동과 산출물을 식별하였다. 전장 정보의 흐름을 기준으로 정보의 수집, 정보의 전달, 정보의 활용으로 단계를 구분하여 정보의 효과와 관련된 모델링 요소를 식별하여 제시한다. 본 논문은 정보의 활용 부분에서 정보에 따라 인간의 의사결정의 품질이 바뀔 수 있다는 것을 가정하고, 실증적인 실험을 통하여 이를 검증하였다. 실험 결과를 바탕으로 정보에 기초한 지휘통제 모델을 구현하고, 이를 바탕으로 실질적인 정보효과에 관한 문제를 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 분석하였다. 본 연구를 통해 정보시스템에 의한 전투효과를 시뮬레이션에 기반하여 분석할 때, 정보의 변화와 인간 의사결정의 변화를 모의할 수 있는 방법을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 정보의 변화는 부정확한 정보, 불완전한 정보, 비일관된 정보, 지연된 정보이며, 의사결정의 변화는 두 가지의 수준에 따라 의사결정의 적시성과 정확성을 기초로 분석하였다.