Decision tree analysis is a formal methodology by which complex decision problems can be decomposed into sequences of contemplated decisions(or acts) and their uncertain consequences(or events). The analysis is naturally and conveniently depicted in the form of tree.
Main purpose of this research is to build an interactive graphics system for the analysis of decision tree, which we will call DETRA-DSS (DEcision TRee Analysis - Decision Support System).
In designing this system, specific interest was concentrated on developing a new dialog method which combines Question/Answer, menu, and input-in-context-of-output. We also added a file management subsystem to store the decision tree for later use.
With these dialog and file management subsystem, we can define the required functional capabilities of the system which include some evaluation procedure such as getting EVPI and performing sensitivity analysis.
Finally, based on these required functional capabilities, 20 separated programs, which can be independently invoked as the decision process proceeds, are developed and contained in a 5.25" diskette.
The system was implemented into IBM PC mainly due to its wide availability and graphics supporting capability.
Using DETRA-DSS, a decision maker can construct, modify, store, and evaluate complex decision trees in a very interactive, easy, and flexible way. We believe this system will help to support the decision making process in an uncertain and ambiguous situation.
본 논문은, IBM PC를 이용하여, 불확실성하에서의 의사결정 분석을 위한 Interactive Graphics 시스템 (DETRA-DSS)을 Design하고 시스템 자체의 Implementation을 목적으로 한다.
시스템 Design에 있어서는, 의사결정 문제를 쉽게 분석할 수 있는 여러가지 기능과 효과적인 Dialog Management Subsystem의 개발에 중점을 두었다. 또한 의사결정 나무를 수정하고 저장하는 기능도 개발하였다.
의사결정 나무를 분석하는데 있어서는, 기본적인 AOFB Procedure 외에도 EVP나 Sensitivity under uncertainty 같은 분석방법도 제공하여, 사용자가 이 시스템을 매우 쉽게 flexible하게 사용할 수 있도록 하였다.
끝으로 이 시스템의 평가와 앞으로의 연구방향도 이 논문에서 제시되었다.
