Performing an investment project evaluation, the most important aspects of consideration are as following: uncertainty prevailed for investment projects, decisions over project life-time, and investment project financing. Many scholars and practitioners have endeavored to these aspects in order to make right decision for the investment project. Through their contribution, now, we have serveral powerful techniques in the field of project evaluation such as Hertz's Risk Analysis, Magee's Decision Tree. These techniques were computerized in the form of package. But there are few attempts to consider the three aspects mentioned above at the same time.
Consequently, in this thesis, development of such an integrated method of project evaluation were attempted, and then it was computerized as the package EXPLA. The base of EXPLA is ROSE's PLADE. That is, EXPLA was developed by adding several subroutines to PLADE and making corrections for PLADE. EXPLA have the same routines of dealing with uncertainty and decisions over time, but have the following four characteristics as EXPLA's advantages.
1. It calculates realistically working capital requirements in the process of evaluating the profitability of investment project.
2. Cash-flow table, projected B/S and I/S, financial ratios are contained in the outputs of EXPLA.
3. EXPLA can perform the social benefit-cost analysis of investment project.
4. Stochastic break-even analysis is also performed.
本論文은 不確實性下의, 施設投資分析을 遂行하는데 있어 收益性의 推定뿐만 아니라 資金運用狀況, 財務狀態等에 대한 情報의 獲得을 通하여 보다 건실한 施設投資意思決定이 이루어질 수 있도록 하였다.
意思決定行列, 純現價의 累積確率分布等을 求할 수 있는 旣存의 컴퓨터패키지에 下記의 修正을 加함으로써 새로운 컴퓨터패키지 EXPLA를 開發하였다.
1) 經濟的 收益性分析의 遂行
2) 資金運用表, 推定 B/S 및 I/S, 財務比率
3) 運轉資本必要額의 算定
4) 確率的 損益分岐點分析
5) 建設其間 및 稼動率의 考慮
6) 確實性等價値의 敏感度分析
7) 第 1,2,3,4 次積率의 고려
이상과 같은 擴大된 情報에 의하여 施設投資決定을 내리는 것이 수익성만 고려한 경우보다 더 合理的인 결과를 얻게 될 것이다.
